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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at PTM Regional - Reaper Game Store

decks
6 (9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27 9-15-3
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9% avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
46.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301 · median 1323 · range 1129–1480 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1016 Q1 1203 Q3 1400 1607
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 10.6% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 57.9% +5.9
Fire Crux Mage 9.1% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 49.1% -0.7
Wind Seiryuu 9.1% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 52.6% +1.7
Water Aetherwing 7.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 39.0% -10.5
Water Ravishing Mill 7.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.1% -2.8
Fire Suited 6.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.2% -10.9
Fire Oblation 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.2% +16.3
Water Genbu 4.5% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 43.4% -4.9
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.4% +11.9
Fire Umbra Guardian 3.0% 0
Wind Arcane 3.0% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.0% 0
Fire Exia 1.5% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.0% -3.8
Fire Slimes 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.2% -14.0
Fire Umbra Diana 1.5% 0
Water Allies 1.5% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.5% -18.3
Water Astra Ranger 1.5% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.0% -14.3
Water Luxem Assassin 1.5% 0
Water Nico 1.5% 0
Wind Byakko 1.5% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.5% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.5% -16.8
Wind Triskit 1.5% 0
Wind Umbra Guardian 1.5% 0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Calming Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Enfeebling Orb -1.00 0 1 0
Lost Providence -1.00 0 1 0
Unmake Duality +1.00 1 0 0
Shadowstrike -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Morgan, Soul Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Fairy Whispers -1.00 0 1 0
The Looking Glass +1.00 1 0 0
Abnegation -1.00 0 1 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Unbroken Mustang -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Umbra Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Slice and Dice +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Assassin's Ripper +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/41731/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike