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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at PTM Regional - Reaper Game Store
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 53.4% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 30.9% | -11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.5 |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Wind Triskit | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledee, Contrarian Poet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bladed Riftseer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |