← PTM Regional - Reaper Game Store
Water AlliesTier 3
at PTM Regional - Reaper Game Store
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1138
· median 1138
· range 1138–1138
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1016
Q1 1203
Q3 1400
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
