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Water GenbuTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.6% | +4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.8% | -25.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Triskit | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uther, Illustrious King | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |