EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at KYD PTM Store Champion. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Wakeup Combo

56.8%

6.8% share · 22 matches

4.5% share · 12 matches

4.5% share · 14 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Umbra Guardian	2	4.5%	12	75.0%	71.2%	57.1%	56.5%	1425	↑ top
2	Wind Wakeup Combo	3	6.8%	22	72.7%	57.3%	56.8%	52.5%	1546	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	4.5%	14	67.9%	50.8%	54.3%	49.7%	1443	↑ top
4	Wind Crux Lorraine	4	9.1%	22	56.8%	49.7%	53.6%	51.1%	1446	↑ top
5	Wind Shadowstrike	2	4.5%	11	54.5%	52.8%	53.4%	53.7%	1269	↓ low
6	Wind Slice & Dice	3	6.8%	14	50.0%	51.3%	50.5%	50.5%	1342	—
7	Fire Suzaku	1	2.3%	5	40.0%	52.0%	50.0%	54.0%	1284	↓ low
8	Fire Oblation	4	9.1%	22	47.7%	58.3%	48.8%	53.7%	1323	—
9	Fire Crux Merlin	2	4.5%	12	50.0%	47.8%	48.6%	48.5%	1401	—
10	Wind Allies	1	2.3%	6	50.0%	54.9%	48.5%	50.5%	1356	—
11	Wind Seiryuu	6	13.6%	32	50.0%	46.1%	47.9%	47.1%	1363	—
12	Water Fractal	1	2.3%	5	40.0%	50.9%	47.3%	51.0%	1137	↓ low
13	Wind Umbra Diana	1	2.3%	4	25.0%	48.6%	46.7%	50.8%	1243	↓ low
14	Wind Merlin	1	2.3%	6	41.7%	44.4%	45.6%	46.5%	1427	↑ top
15	Fire Aetherwing	2	4.5%	8	50.0%	45.8%	44.4%	42.5%	1455	↑ top
16	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.3%	3	33.3%	54.2%	44.0%	51.8%	1214	↓ low
17	Arcane	1	2.3%	3	33.3%	33.3%	42.9%	39.0%	1418	↑ top
18	Fire Umbra Alice	1	2.3%	4	25.0%	47.5%	42.0%	46.6%	1207	↓ low
19	Horse and Taxes	2	4.5%	10	30.0%	49.1%	40.7%	46.7%	1202	↓ low
20	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	2.3%	3	0.0%	20.8%	40.0%	37.4%	1386	—
21	Water Aetherwing	1	2.3%	2	0.0%	33.2%	40.0%	40.4%	1426	↑ top
22	Fire Aggro	1	2.3%	3	0.0%	35.8%	40.0%	42.9%	1241	↓ low
23	Wind Neos	1	2.3%	3	0.0%	38.9%	35.0%	42.9%	1128	↓ low