← Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 1 3.2% 7 71.4% 43.1% 58.0% 47.5% 1688 ↑ top
2 Water Fractal 1 3.2% 8 81.2% 76.2% 57.3% 59.2% 1432 ↑ top
3 Water Aetherwing 2 6.5% 13 69.2% 66.0% 55.7% 56.0% 1388 ↑ top
4 Fire Arcane 1 3.2% 5 60.0% 55.6% 55.6% 55.7% 1364 ↑ top
5 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 3.2% 5 60.0% 58.1% 55.4% 56.8% 1233 ↓ low
6 Wind Astra Cleric 2 6.5% 9 66.7% 48.2% 53.8% 48.2% 1441 ↑ top
7 Wind Shadowstrike 2 6.5% 9 44.4% 40.0% 53.7% 48.8% 1316
8 Fire Tera Silvie 2 6.5% 11 50.0% 56.6% 52.9% 55.1% 1224 ↓ low
9 Wind Seiryuu 6 19.4% 28 48.2% 53.9% 50.5% 52.5% 1255
10 Wind Crux Merlin 1 3.2% 5 20.0% 30.6% 48.0% 46.1% 1124 ↓ low
11 Fire Aggro 1 3.2% 5 40.0% 38.4% 47.5% 44.9% 1338
12 Fire Neos 1 3.2% 5 40.0% 44.7% 46.7% 46.5% 1226 ↓ low
13 Fire Aetherwing 4 12.9% 21 42.9% 44.1% 46.4% 46.7% 1306
14 Fire Crux Mage 4 12.9% 14 39.3% 45.6% 44.9% 45.9% 1227 ↓ low
15 Wind Slice & Dice 1 3.2% 5 40.0% 47.2% 44.1% 45.7% 1312
16 Fire Crux Merlin 1 3.2% 4 0.0% 34.6% 36.2% 42.3% 1130 ↓ low