EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Regional .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 76.4% | 56.2% | 61.4% | 1282 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 65.3% | 55.3% | 56.6% | 1316 | — |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 59.9% | 53.6% | 57.1% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 12.5% | 20 | 60.0% | 41.8% | 52.4% | 45.9% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 3 | 9.4% | 14 | 60.7% | 65.2% | 52.0% | 54.7% | 1238 | — |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 5 | 15.6% | 25 | 52.0% | 55.1% | 51.5% | 52.8% | 1322 | — |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 40.8% | 51.5% | 47.6% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.8% | 50.7% | 52.1% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Merlin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 39.3% | 50.0% | 47.4% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.3% | 49.5% | 48.6% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 6.2% | 12 | 50.0% | 52.2% | 49.5% | 50.4% | 1232 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Chess | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 55.1% | 48.0% | 53.2% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.2% | 47.0% | 47.2% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 46.9% | 48.9% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 38.6% | 46.8% | 40.7% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 40.0% | 41.2% | 46.1% | 46.6% | 1374 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Slimes | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 27.3% | 35.6% | 43.0% | 44.0% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.2% | 43.0% | 45.2% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | 1104 | ↓ low |