← Capybara Cards Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
decks
3
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-9-1
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1368
· median 1460
· range 1160–1485
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1219
Q3 1392
1563
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +25.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
