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Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
72.8%
avg ELO +11.5 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1295
· median 1295
· range 1295–1295
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1219
Q3 1392
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
