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Fire Umbra AliceTier 2

at Capybara Cards Store Championship

decks
3 (7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14 5-6-3
overall winrate
46.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.3% avg ELO -5.6 per match
expected value
47.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1308 · median 1315 · range 1153–1455 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075 Q1 1219 Q3 1392 1563
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 15.4% 0
Fire Crux Mage 10.3% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.1% +0.1
Wind Shadowstrike 10.3% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 41.6% -8.0
Fire Aggro 7.7% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 39.4% -7.9
Fire Exia 5.1% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.9% -3.4
Fire Oblation 5.1% 0
Water Aetherwing 5.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.0% -20.9
Wind Allies 5.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.9% -13.0
Fire Aetherwing 2.6% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.0% -20.8
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.6% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.6% 0
Water Genbu 2.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.3% +6.9
Water Luxem Assassin 2.6% 0
Wind Arcane 2.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 56.2% +5.9
Wind Astra Cleric 2.6% 0
Wind Dawn of Ashes 2.6% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.6% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Umbra Alice decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/42378/archetypes/Fire Umbra Alice