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Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
decks
3
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
5-6-3
overall winrate
46.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.3%
avg ELO -5.6 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1308
· median 1315
· range 1153–1455
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1219
Q3 1392
1563
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | -8.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.2% | +5.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
