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Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.2% | -11.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crumbling Reign | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ameliorating Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |