EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at KouritenSG Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Suited

58.3%

2.9% share · 5 matches

1st

Fire Oblation

60.0%

2.9% share · 5 matches

2.9% share · 5 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Oblation	1	2.9%	5	100.0%	62.2%	60.0%	54.0%	1584	↑ top
2	Fire Suited	1	2.9%	5	80.0%	68.0%	58.3%	57.8%	1277	—
3	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	2.9%	5	80.0%	49.7%	57.7%	52.3%	1495	↑ top
4	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.9%	3	66.7%	49.8%	56.0%	51.6%	1633	↑ top
5	Fire Firebloom Burn	3	8.6%	13	61.5%	67.4%	55.1%	58.2%	1236	↓ low
6	Wind Seiryuu	2	5.7%	10	60.0%	54.9%	53.1%	52.5%	1390	↑ top
7	Wind Shadowstrike	3	8.6%	12	50.0%	47.9%	51.8%	49.3%	1307	—
8	Fire Umbra Guardian	2	5.7%	9	61.1%	52.8%	51.0%	51.2%	1354	—
9	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.9%	5	70.0%	53.3%	50.7%	49.6%	1245	↓ low
10	Water Luxem Assassin	5	14.3%	17	50.0%	45.0%	49.4%	47.9%	1361	—
11	Fire Umbra Ciel	1	2.9%	4	37.5%	54.0%	48.8%	51.9%	1142	↓ low
12	Fire Aggro	4	11.4%	17	52.9%	55.8%	48.1%	49.5%	1373	↑ top
13	Water Ravishing Mill	1	2.9%	4	37.5%	49.7%	47.0%	49.3%	1283	—
14	Wind Luxem Zander	1	2.9%	5	40.0%	48.7%	46.7%	48.4%	1350	—
15	Wind Arcane	1	2.9%	5	20.0%	46.7%	44.0%	49.5%	1142	↓ low
16	Wind Neos Tonoris	1	2.9%	4	25.0%	55.8%	44.0%	51.1%	953	↓ low
17	Wind Merlin	1	2.9%	5	20.0%	24.9%	43.6%	41.4%	1320	—
18	Water Fractal	1	2.9%	5	40.0%	35.7%	43.1%	41.3%	1337	—
19	Water Tera Mage	2	5.7%	8	18.8%	38.1%	42.5%	45.5%	1121	↓ low
20	Wind Tera Mage	1	2.9%	3	33.3%	44.4%	42.0%	43.8%	1284	—
21	Water Aetherwing	1	2.9%	4	0.0%	27.7%	40.0%	41.4%	1252	↓ low