EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CakeTCG PTM Online Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 85.7% | 52.8% | 55.4% | 50.3% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 43.9% | 55.1% | 49.2% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 2.8% | 14 | 67.9% | 54.7% | 54.9% | 51.2% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 71.4% | 57.5% | 54.8% | 52.6% | 1386 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 4 | 5.6% | 26 | 67.3% | 57.3% | 54.1% | 52.2% | 1410 | — |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 64.3% | 56.3% | 53.2% | 52.5% | 1416 | — |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 2.8% | 12 | 62.5% | 46.3% | 53.1% | 48.2% | 1481 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 4.2% | 14 | 57.1% | 54.4% | 53.0% | 51.5% | 1504 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 2.8% | 14 | 60.7% | 55.2% | 51.8% | 51.4% | 1387 | — |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 1 | 1.4% | 5 | 50.0% | 44.5% | 51.4% | 48.5% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Chess | 1 | 1.4% | 6 | 41.7% | 48.4% | 51.2% | 50.8% | 1251 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 7 | 9.7% | 40 | 47.5% | 50.8% | 51.2% | 51.1% | 1295 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 4.2% | 18 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 51.1% | 50.1% | 1361 | — |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 6.9% | 32 | 54.7% | 51.1% | 51.0% | 49.9% | 1373 | — |
| 15 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 5.6% | 23 | 47.8% | 48.5% | 51.0% | 49.9% | 1348 | — |
| 16 | Water Allies | 3 | 4.2% | 17 | 52.9% | 50.7% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 1338 | — |
| 17 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.4% | 8 | 43.8% | 51.1% | 50.0% | 51.1% | 1353 | — |
| 18 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 4 | 5.6% | 21 | 50.0% | 56.0% | 49.2% | 51.2% | 1263 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.4% | 8 | 50.0% | 55.4% | 49.1% | 51.6% | 1319 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.4% | 6 | 33.3% | 51.9% | 48.7% | 51.8% | 1244 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 50.0% | 56.2% | 48.4% | 50.6% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 4.2% | 21 | 47.6% | 45.3% | 47.7% | 47.5% | 1393 | — |
| 23 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 1.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 41.3% | 47.2% | 45.3% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 24 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 2.8% | 10 | 30.0% | 44.2% | 47.1% | 48.4% | 1380 | — |
| 25 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.4% | 47.0% | 47.8% | 1251 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Aetherwing | 5 | 6.9% | 26 | 46.2% | 50.1% | 46.9% | 49.1% | 1411 | — |
| 27 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 1.4% | 5 | 30.0% | 43.7% | 45.6% | 47.5% | 1420 | — |
| 28 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 2 | 2.8% | 8 | 25.0% | 40.7% | 45.6% | 47.7% | 1518 | ↑ top |
| 29 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 2.8% | 11 | 27.3% | 42.4% | 44.8% | 47.0% | 1450 | ↑ top |
| 30 | Water Astra Ranger | 3 | 4.2% | 14 | 39.3% | 46.3% | 44.2% | 47.4% | 1338 | — |
| 31 | Water Tera Mage | 2 | 2.8% | 14 | 28.6% | 46.9% | 44.0% | 48.7% | 1250 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.0% | 42.9% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1335 | — |
| 33 | Fire Genbu | 1 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.5% | 40.0% | 42.5% | 1444 | ↑ top |