← SPELLROO GAMING 2.15 Grand Archive TCG Store Championship (Constructed)
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at SPELLROO GAMING 2.15 Grand Archive TCG Store Championship (Constructed).
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 10.0% | 10 | 80.0% | 67.1% | 59.0% | 56.1% | 1450 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 90.0% | 49.2% | 57.9% | 48.3% | 1702 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 3 | 15.0% | 11 | 63.6% | 73.3% | 51.8% | 56.2% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 10.0% | 9 | 44.4% | 50.9% | 51.5% | 52.2% | 1379 | — |
| 5 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 69.0% | 51.4% | 56.6% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Slimes | 2 | 10.0% | 8 | 56.2% | 52.2% | 50.8% | 48.9% | 1311 | — |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 41.0% | 48.9% | 45.4% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.1% | 48.0% | 47.1% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 42.4% | 46.7% | 43.9% | 1370 | — |
| 10 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 10.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 41.5% | 44.2% | 43.7% | 1328 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 30.0% | 46.2% | 43.8% | 46.2% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 31.8% | 41.7% | 39.3% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Cats | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 31.6% | 40.0% | 42.6% | 1104 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 10.0% | 32.2% | 39.6% | 41.5% | 1144 | ↓ low |