EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MVP X PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Aetherwing

54.8%

6.2% share · 11 matches

6.2% share · 11 matches

3.1% share · 5 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Shadowstrike	2	6.2%	11	90.9%	68.7%	59.2%	56.4%	1433	↑ top
2	Water Aetherwing	2	6.2%	11	54.5%	60.5%	54.8%	58.1%	1405	↑ top
3	Fire Suzaku	1	3.1%	5	60.0%	50.5%	54.3%	52.2%	1344	—
4	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	9.4%	18	58.3%	52.4%	52.4%	51.1%	1389	↑ top
5	Wind Seiryuu	7	21.9%	35	54.3%	46.2%	51.6%	48.1%	1382	↑ top
6	Fire Crux Merlin	1	3.1%	5	60.0%	59.0%	50.8%	52.0%	1532	↑ top
7	Wind Arcane	1	3.1%	5	60.0%	49.9%	50.0%	49.0%	1280	—
8	Wind Wakeup Combo	2	6.2%	10	60.0%	49.4%	49.6%	48.1%	1401	↑ top
9	Water Luxem Assassin	1	3.1%	5	70.0%	63.3%	47.9%	50.4%	1383	↑ top
10	Water Fractal	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	51.5%	45.0%	50.4%	1212	↓ low
11	Fire Firebloom Burn	2	6.2%	10	40.0%	28.2%	44.8%	40.9%	1298	—
12	Water Umbra Guardian	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	53.5%	44.7%	49.9%	1131	↓ low
13	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	52.7%	43.3%	48.3%	1154	↓ low
14	Water Tera Cleric	1	3.1%	5	20.0%	40.8%	43.3%	45.5%	1106	↓ low
15	Wind Astra Cleric	1	3.1%	4	25.0%	43.9%	42.9%	46.8%	1207	↓ low
16	Fire Aetherwing	2	6.2%	10	30.0%	51.8%	40.6%	49.9%	1148	↓ low
17	Fire Neos	1	3.1%	1	0.0%	47.3%	40.0%	47.3%	1047	↓ low
18	Wind Slice & Dice	1	3.1%	4	0.0%	37.1%	40.0%	44.7%	1139	↓ low
19	Fire Oblation	1	3.1%	4	0.0%	39.9%	36.7%	45.3%	1042	↓ low