EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at JWW/Maindeck PTM Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Exia | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.0% | 57.9% | 53.5% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 5.7% | 12 | 75.0% | 63.3% | 57.3% | 55.4% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 5.7% | 12 | 66.7% | 57.5% | 57.2% | 54.1% | 1323 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 75.0% | 53.3% | 56.4% | 51.3% | 1689 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 83.3% | 53.6% | 55.6% | 51.3% | 1590 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 3 | 8.6% | 18 | 69.4% | 58.0% | 54.2% | 51.3% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 5.7% | 10 | 55.0% | 57.2% | 53.7% | 53.8% | 1265 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 56.9% | 52.5% | 54.8% | 1209 | — |
| 9 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.5% | 51.2% | 53.4% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Neos | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.1% | 50.7% | 49.9% | 1231 | — |
| 11 | Water Genbu | 2 | 5.7% | 10 | 45.0% | 44.4% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1224 | — |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 14.3% | 28 | 44.6% | 50.5% | 48.0% | 49.8% | 1211 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 5.7% | 12 | 33.3% | 43.0% | 47.1% | 49.7% | 1105 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 47.8% | 46.4% | 49.9% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 8.6% | 14 | 42.9% | 49.1% | 46.0% | 47.5% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 25.0% | 36.2% | 46.0% | 47.2% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 49.2% | 45.0% | 48.2% | 1080 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 2.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 36.0% | 44.6% | 41.7% | 1259 | — |
| 19 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 36.1% | 43.3% | 41.9% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.0% | 42.0% | 44.4% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.7% | 40.7% | 43.7% | 1112 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 2.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.6% | 40.0% | 41.0% | 1084 | ↓ low |