← Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 2 | 2.1% | 14 | 64.3% | 71.3% | 55.5% | 59.7% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 13 | 13.8% | 79 | 59.5% | 55.7% | 55.4% | 54.3% | 1329 | — |
| 3 | Arcane | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 58.0% | 54.9% | 55.6% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 2.1% | 14 | 57.1% | 67.1% | 53.5% | 57.6% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 5 | 5.3% | 34 | 64.7% | 51.6% | 53.1% | 50.1% | 1499 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 5 | 5.3% | 32 | 60.9% | 57.2% | 53.0% | 52.0% | 1413 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 43.5% | 52.2% | 50.7% | 1371 | — |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 50.4% | 52.0% | 53.1% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Slimes | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 57.6% | 51.7% | 55.0% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 4 | 4.3% | 30 | 60.0% | 52.1% | 51.5% | 49.4% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 46.1% | 51.3% | 49.6% | 1616 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 50.5% | 50.9% | 1213 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Horse and Taxes | 2 | 2.1% | 14 | 67.9% | 70.6% | 50.5% | 53.1% | 1303 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 6 | 6.4% | 35 | 54.3% | 56.0% | 50.1% | 50.6% | 1271 | — |
| 15 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 46.9% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 28.5% | 49.5% | 43.3% | 1561 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Aetherwing | 3 | 3.2% | 21 | 57.1% | 58.7% | 48.8% | 50.0% | 1357 | — |
| 18 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 3.2% | 19 | 57.9% | 54.8% | 48.7% | 49.2% | 1315 | — |
| 19 | Wind Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 39.9% | 48.6% | 47.4% | 1343 | — |
| 20 | Wind Crux Assassin | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 44.1% | 48.4% | 49.9% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 44.1% | 48.4% | 49.9% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Tera Mage | 3 | 3.2% | 24 | 54.2% | 54.8% | 48.3% | 50.5% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 42.3% | 48.2% | 47.4% | 1345 | — |
| 24 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 52.1% | 48.2% | 48.3% | 1263 | — |
| 25 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 2.1% | 15 | 53.3% | 47.5% | 48.0% | 46.6% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 26 | Wind Seiryuu | 8 | 8.5% | 51 | 47.1% | 46.0% | 47.9% | 47.5% | 1327 | — |
| 27 | Fire Silvie | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 50.0% | 59.6% | 47.9% | 51.2% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 54.8% | 47.0% | 50.6% | 1257 | — |
| 29 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 6.4% | 31 | 43.5% | 41.9% | 45.9% | 45.8% | 1280 | — |
| 30 | Wind Astra Cleric | 7 | 7.4% | 41 | 39.0% | 41.7% | 45.6% | 46.9% | 1310 | — |
| 31 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 18.8% | 34.7% | 45.2% | 45.3% | 1272 | — |
| 32 | Wind Alice | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 41.4% | 44.4% | 44.3% | 1317 | — |
| 33 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 3.2% | 19 | 34.2% | 39.5% | 43.1% | 44.7% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Wind Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 25.0% | 47.5% | 41.5% | 46.2% | 1042 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 16.7% | 36.2% | 41.1% | 45.1% | 1055 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 21.4% | 34.3% | 40.9% | 42.2% | 1086 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Wind Chess | 1 | 1.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 32.3% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 1086 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.1% | 5 | 0.0% | 30.3% | 35.2% | 40.9% | 1008 | ↓ low |
| 39 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 1.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.9% | 34.6% | 35.6% | 1195 | ↓ low |