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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
1
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-2-3
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1094
· median 1094
· range 1094–1094
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1181
Q3 1383
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
