← Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-5-0
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.5%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1449
· median 1449
· range 1341–1558
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1181
Q3 1383
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.7% | -19.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
