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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.5% | -0.9 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.0% | +4.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.8% | +1.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tweedledee, Contrarian Poet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |