← Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
Water AlliesTier 1
at Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
4
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
14-8-2
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1266
· range 1180–1513
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1181
Q3 1383
1599
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.6% | -4.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
