← Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
5
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
15-7-6
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.1%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
54.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1326
· median 1339
· range 1153–1463
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1181
Q3 1383
1599
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.4% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.4% | +2.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.5% | +6.3 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
