← Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
Water FractalTier 2
at Valkyrie Games Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
3
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-7-4
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1227
· median 1211
· range 1121–1349
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1181
Q3 1383
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.3% | +19.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
