EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Apex PTM SC.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 11.8% | 22 | 72.7% | 63.3% | 58.3% | 55.9% | 1438 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 2 | 5.9% | 13 | 57.7% | 58.6% | 54.1% | 54.2% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 5.9% | 12 | 66.7% | 60.1% | 52.3% | 53.1% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 8.8% | 16 | 59.4% | 55.5% | 51.2% | 50.8% | 1336 | — |
| 5 | Water Luxem Assassin | 2 | 5.9% | 8 | 68.8% | 52.7% | 51.2% | 48.5% | 1433 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Slice & Dice | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 66.7% | 55.6% | 51.1% | 50.6% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 2.9% | 7 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 51.1% | 50.7% | 1312 | — |
| 8 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 39.2% | 49.1% | 49.0% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.2% | 49.1% | 49.7% | 1375 | — |
| 10 | Wind Tera Mage | 1 | 2.9% | 7 | 35.7% | 47.3% | 48.2% | 50.2% | 1284 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 8.8% | 10 | 45.0% | 49.2% | 46.6% | 48.1% | 1314 | — |
| 12 | Water Neos | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 47.2% | 46.4% | 47.4% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | 46.7% | 1305 | — |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 5.9% | 13 | 30.8% | 38.9% | 45.8% | 47.3% | 1354 | — |
| 15 | Water Genbu | 3 | 8.8% | 13 | 42.3% | 51.7% | 45.5% | 48.6% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.9% | 3 | 33.3% | 37.3% | 45.0% | 41.5% | 1315 | — |
| 17 | Wind Neos | 1 | 2.9% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.8% | 44.0% | 42.9% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 8.8% | 12 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 43.6% | 43.5% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Allies | 1 | 2.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 37.1% | 42.2% | 41.9% | 1273 | — |