Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Regionals
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.9%
avg ELO +5.8 per match
expected value
57.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1426
· median 1426
· range 1426–1426
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1169
Q3 1328
1484
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
