Water GenbuTier 2
at Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.9% | -3.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.2% | +15.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.8% | -16.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Orb of Sealing, Revitalizing Cleanse, Expel the Departed. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Stolen Chance, Gentle Respite.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Eminent Lethargy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lively Chorale | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purling Footman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |