Water FractalTier 1
at Regionals
decks
3
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
10-6-2
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.1%
avg ELO +4.7 per match
expected value
57.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1201
· median 1259
· range 1083–1261
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1169
Q3 1328
1484
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 73.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
