Water Crux MageTier 2
at Regionals
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.3%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1304
· median 1304
· range 1304–1304
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1169
Q3 1328
1484
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
