Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Accursed Strength | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |