Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scathing Seminary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |