Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at PTM 店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 12.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -9.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Pawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |