Water AetherwingTier 1
at PTM 店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Water Fractal | 12.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.7% | +10.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refreshing Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |