Water FractalTier 2
at PTM 店家冠軍賽
decks
4
(12.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-10-1
overall winrate
38.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.3%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1267
· range 1163–1528
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1146
Q1 1212
Q3 1386
1694
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +15.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.3% | -10.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -25.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
