← FTG PTM Regional Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at FTG PTM Regional Championship
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
4-7-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1221
· median 1221
· range 1141–1300
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1190
Q3 1381
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Wind Chess | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
