← FTG PTM Regional Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at FTG PTM Regional Championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Water Fractal | 10.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Chess | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |