← FTG PTM Regional Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at FTG PTM Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.9% | -3.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |