EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Whimsy PTM Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 2.4% | 14 | 64.3% | 55.5% | 56.6% | 54.2% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 2.4% | 15 | 70.0% | 61.6% | 55.1% | 53.2% | 1333 | — |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 4 | 4.8% | 22 | 65.9% | 64.4% | 54.6% | 55.2% | 1262 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 3.6% | 20 | 62.5% | 57.0% | 54.5% | 53.1% | 1306 | — |
| 5 | Water Neos | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 64.3% | 64.4% | 54.5% | 55.9% | 1331 | — |
| 6 | Water Allies | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 48.7% | 54.4% | 51.0% | 1345 | — |
| 7 | Wind Exia | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 48.8% | 53.3% | 50.8% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 6 | 7.1% | 37 | 56.8% | 63.0% | 52.6% | 55.8% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 2.4% | 16 | 62.5% | 50.1% | 52.3% | 49.7% | 1454 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 9.5% | 41 | 54.9% | 46.3% | 52.0% | 48.6% | 1348 | — |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 6 | 7.1% | 38 | 56.6% | 43.2% | 52.0% | 47.4% | 1473 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 55.8% | 51.4% | 56.0% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 78.6% | 46.9% | 51.2% | 45.0% | 1630 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 2.4% | 14 | 60.7% | 58.7% | 50.8% | 51.9% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 2.4% | 13 | 46.2% | 56.8% | 50.7% | 53.7% | 1261 | — |
| 16 | Water Tera Mage | 2 | 2.4% | 14 | 46.4% | 45.4% | 50.4% | 49.2% | 1294 | — |
| 17 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 58.8% | 50.2% | 51.9% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 63.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | 1244 | — |
| 19 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 51.6% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1355 | — |
| 20 | Slimes | 1 | 1.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.4% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 1256 | — |
| 21 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 34.8% | 49.5% | 45.0% | 1341 | — |
| 22 | Wind Exia Jin | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 28.6% | 39.2% | 48.7% | 50.2% | 1160 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Slimes | 4 | 4.8% | 28 | 41.1% | 42.9% | 48.4% | 49.1% | 1299 | — |
| 24 | Water Tera Tamer | 1 | 1.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 52.0% | 48.3% | 56.3% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Allies | 3 | 3.6% | 19 | 34.2% | 52.2% | 47.5% | 52.7% | 1091 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 2.4% | 15 | 50.0% | 53.5% | 47.4% | 49.5% | 1318 | — |
| 27 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.2% | 5 | 30.0% | 49.5% | 47.4% | 51.3% | 1057 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Water Astra Ranger | 2 | 2.4% | 8 | 25.0% | 29.8% | 47.4% | 44.3% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.2% | 8 | 31.2% | 38.0% | 47.3% | 47.0% | 1287 | — |
| 30 | Fire Aggro | 10 | 11.9% | 49 | 40.8% | 43.3% | 46.6% | 47.9% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 47.4% | 46.1% | 48.5% | 1316 | — |
| 32 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.4% | 45.8% | 47.4% | 1174 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.5% | 45.7% | 47.8% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 3.6% | 15 | 26.7% | 38.9% | 44.9% | 47.7% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Water Genbu | 4 | 4.8% | 25 | 52.0% | 53.1% | 43.6% | 45.0% | 1280 | — |
| 36 | Water Overlord | 1 | 1.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.1% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 33.8% | 38.8% | 41.7% | 1175 | ↓ low |