← Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Fire Firebloom Burn
59.6%
2.4% share · 6 matches
↑ top
1st
Water Crux Lorraine
60.7%
2.4% share · 6 matches
↑ top
3rd
Water Astra Ranger
57.5%
2.4% share · 6 matches
↑ top
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Crux Lorraine 1 2.4% 6 91.7% 66.9% 60.7% 58.5% 1439 ↑ top
2 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 2.4% 6 75.0% 52.0% 59.6% 51.6% 1415 ↑ top
3 Water Astra Ranger 1 2.4% 6 83.3% 59.3% 57.5% 53.6% 1390 ↑ top
4 Wind Alice 1 2.4% 7 78.6% 55.7% 57.5% 53.1% 1436 ↑ top
5 Water Genbu 1 2.4% 6 75.0% 44.7% 56.4% 48.7% 1750 ↑ top
6 Water Fractal 4 9.5% 20 62.5% 56.7% 55.7% 53.7% 1329 —
7 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 4.8% 12 62.5% 46.4% 55.4% 51.1% 1394 ↑ top
8 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 2.4% 7 78.6% 76.2% 54.5% 57.8% 1344 ↑ top
9 Fire Crux Mage 2 4.8% 12 66.7% 70.5% 52.1% 54.2% 1371 ↑ top
10 Fire Suzaku 1 2.4% 6 50.0% 59.3% 51.2% 53.9% 1153 ↓ low
11 Water Nico 1 2.4% 6 50.0% 31.7% 51.1% 43.7% 1549 ↑ top
12 Water Umbra Guardian 1 2.4% 6 66.7% 55.7% 51.1% 50.2% 1269 —
13 Wind Arcane 2 4.8% 13 46.2% 56.1% 50.8% 52.4% 1233 —
14 Wind Allies 1 2.4% 6 50.0% 37.8% 50.7% 47.4% 1480 ↑ top
15 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 2.4% 6 50.0% 37.8% 50.7% 47.4% 1480 ↑ top
16 Wind Shadowstrike 5 11.9% 32 50.0% 47.3% 48.2% 47.5% 1307 —
17 Wind Seiryuu 3 7.1% 15 36.7% 54.1% 47.5% 52.4% 1175 ↓ low
18 Wind Luxem Tamer 1 2.4% 6 33.3% 53.3% 47.1% 52.2% 1122 ↓ low
19 Water Aetherwing 2 4.8% 11 45.5% 51.3% 46.2% 48.2% 1307 —
20 Water Ravishing Mill 1 2.4% 7 42.9% 54.6% 45.5% 49.6% 1210 ↓ low
21 Water Tera Cleric 1 2.4% 5 40.0% 46.1% 45.5% 46.6% 1162 ↓ low
22 Wind Byakko 1 2.4% 6 25.0% 40.4% 44.5% 46.4% 1115 ↓ low
23 Wind Umbra Ranger 2 4.8% 10 20.0% 35.0% 44.1% 47.4% 1110 ↓ low
24 Fire Suited 1 2.4% 7 28.6% 45.5% 43.8% 46.8% 1049 ↓ low
25 Fire Alice 1 2.4% 6 33.3% 49.5% 43.6% 46.8% 1088 ↓ low
26 Wind Razorgale 1 2.4% 3 33.3% 45.7% 42.9% 45.9% 1190 ↓ low
27 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 2.4% 4 25.0% 39.8% 41.7% 42.5% 1158 ↓ low
28 Fire Exia 1 2.4% 6 8.3% 29.0% 40.9% 43.9% 1201 ↓ low
29 Fire Aggro 1 2.4% 2 0.0% 37.1% 40.0% 41.5% 1153 ↓ low
30 Fire Arisanna 1 2.4% 3 0.0% 32.4% 40.0% 41.9% 1063 ↓ low