← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aetherwing 2 2.0% 14 67.9% 63.1% 56.2% 55.6% 1342 ↑ top
2 Wind Arcane 2 2.0% 14 57.1% 56.2% 54.6% 54.1% 1193 ↓ low
3 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 1.0% 7 57.1% 48.3% 54.5% 52.9% 1278
4 Water Luxem Assassin 2 2.0% 10 60.0% 47.4% 54.0% 50.0% 1309
5 Water Aetherwing 4 4.0% 24 62.5% 67.8% 53.6% 56.1% 1350 ↑ top
6 Wind Shadowstrike 6 6.1% 39 53.8% 44.8% 52.9% 49.6% 1322
7 Wind Overlord 1 1.0% 7 50.0% 48.0% 52.8% 52.3% 1301
8 Fire Oblation 3 3.0% 21 54.8% 53.4% 52.7% 50.8% 1311
9 Wind Seiryuu 13 13.1% 74 58.8% 54.1% 52.6% 51.2% 1356 ↑ top
10 Wind Umbra Ciel 1 1.0% 7 64.3% 62.8% 52.2% 53.3% 1237
11 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 1.0% 7 78.6% 57.3% 51.9% 49.4% 1522 ↑ top
12 Water Allies 1 1.0% 7 71.4% 71.6% 51.9% 54.7% 1335 ↑ top
13 Fire Crux Mage 8 8.1% 44 52.3% 49.9% 51.3% 49.9% 1335 ↑ top
14 Wind Razorgale 1 1.0% 7 57.1% 46.7% 51.3% 49.6% 1423 ↑ top
15 Fire Aggro 5 5.1% 35 48.6% 47.9% 49.8% 49.1% 1296
16 Fire Firebloom Burn 4 4.0% 26 42.3% 47.9% 49.6% 50.2% 1194 ↓ low
17 Fire Exia 1 1.0% 6 41.7% 50.2% 49.6% 51.1% 1161 ↓ low
18 Fire Umbra Guardian 4 4.0% 28 55.4% 55.6% 49.4% 52.0% 1329
19 Fire Suited 2 2.0% 14 53.6% 39.9% 49.3% 45.9% 1314
20 Fire Luxem Assassin 3 3.0% 21 50.0% 46.4% 47.8% 46.9% 1312
21 Water Astra Ranger 1 1.0% 7 57.1% 62.5% 47.8% 52.2% 1268
22 Water Fractal 5 5.1% 33 48.5% 57.0% 47.7% 51.2% 1197 ↓ low
23 Water Genbu 5 5.1% 33 45.5% 48.1% 47.6% 48.4% 1215 ↓ low
24 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 1.0% 7 42.9% 34.9% 47.3% 42.8% 1403 ↑ top
25 Water Crux Assassin 1 1.0% 7 35.7% 31.7% 47.1% 44.8% 1466 ↑ top
26 Wind Allies 5 5.1% 34 47.1% 56.4% 46.8% 50.3% 1207 ↓ low
27 Fire Suzaku 2 2.0% 13 38.5% 35.2% 46.7% 45.2% 1318
28 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 1.0% 7 21.4% 31.8% 46.0% 45.7% 1183 ↓ low
29 Fire Crux Lorraine 3 3.0% 21 40.5% 44.4% 45.5% 47.0% 1194 ↓ low
30 Water Tera Cleric 1 1.0% 5 20.0% 42.5% 44.7% 47.2% 1106 ↓ low
31 Fire Umbra Alice 2 2.0% 13 26.9% 37.5% 43.8% 45.9% 1142 ↓ low
32 Wind Astra Cleric 2 2.0% 12 33.3% 44.2% 43.1% 45.9% 1212 ↓ low
33 Slimes 4 4.0% 23 32.6% 41.8% 41.8% 45.4% 1140 ↓ low
34 Wind Jin 1 1.0% 5 10.0% 33.2% 41.0% 44.9% 1214 ↓ low