Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Tainan Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.9% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -2.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.5% | +9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.2% | -9.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.4% | +8.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.3 |
| Water Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ghost Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vestal Priestess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |