Water GenbuTier 1
at Tainan Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 45.0% | -2.7 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.5% | -4.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Croaking Webfoot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |