Water Crux LorraineTier 3
at Tainan Regional
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1441–1441
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1225
Q3 1408
1694
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
