Wind ArcaneTier 2
at Tainan Regional
decks
3
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-9-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.3%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1364
· median 1393
· range 1175–1523
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1225
Q3 1408
1694
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 30.5% | -11.2 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.6% | -8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
