Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Tainan Regional
decks
5
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
18-13-1
overall winrate
57.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1404
· median 1426
· range 1242–1536
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1225
Q3 1408
1694
60% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.7% | -4.2 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.3% | -6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
