EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Luxem Assassin

53.2%

11.8% share · 23 matches

11.8% share · 24 matches

5.9% share · 13 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Aetherwing	4	11.8%	24	64.6%	48.3%	56.8%	51.5%	1435	↑ top
2	Fire Luxem Assassin	4	11.8%	23	67.4%	53.4%	53.2%	50.8%	1452	↑ top
3	Fire Suited	2	5.9%	13	53.8%	53.4%	51.5%	52.2%	1435	↑ top
4	Water Byakko	1	2.9%	6	75.0%	62.3%	51.3%	52.3%	1427	↑ top
5	Water Crux Mage	1	2.9%	6	75.0%	62.3%	51.3%	52.3%	1427	↑ top
6	Wind Razorgale	1	2.9%	7	42.9%	46.1%	50.0%	50.5%	1321	—
7	Wind Shadowstrike	5	14.7%	21	54.8%	47.8%	49.5%	47.5%	1368	—
8	Water Allies	3	8.8%	16	53.1%	52.6%	49.0%	50.0%	1317	—
9	Wind Seiryuu	3	8.8%	18	44.4%	46.3%	47.8%	48.7%	1315	—
10	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.9%	6	41.7%	45.4%	47.2%	47.9%	1255	↓ low
11	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.9%	6	50.0%	52.8%	46.7%	48.8%	1315	—
12	Fire Crux Mage	2	5.9%	12	33.3%	47.1%	46.0%	49.7%	1190	↓ low
13	Fire Aggro	1	2.9%	6	33.3%	39.6%	45.8%	46.6%	1275	—
14	Water Astra Ranger	1	2.9%	6	33.3%	57.0%	45.7%	53.6%	1198	↓ low
15	Horse and Taxes	1	2.9%	7	28.6%	55.7%	45.5%	53.3%	1121	↓ low
16	Fire Umbra Guardian	3	8.8%	15	30.0%	48.7%	44.9%	50.9%	1167	↓ low
17	Water Fractal	1	2.9%	6	16.7%	33.8%	44.4%	46.1%	1217	↓ low