EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mercurial Heart Charity Cup .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 2.8% | 14 | 67.9% | 59.0% | 58.8% | 55.8% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 6 | 8.3% | 39 | 60.3% | 55.9% | 55.6% | 53.3% | 1492 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 4.2% | 18 | 66.7% | 59.1% | 54.1% | 53.9% | 1373 | — |
| 4 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 71.4% | 54.1% | 53.9% | 51.4% | 1561 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 2 | 2.8% | 14 | 53.6% | 50.3% | 53.9% | 50.6% | 1531 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 2.8% | 11 | 54.5% | 41.7% | 53.8% | 47.3% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 3 | 4.2% | 21 | 64.3% | 54.8% | 53.4% | 51.0% | 1428 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 49.9% | 53.2% | 51.0% | 1325 | — |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 13 | 18.1% | 68 | 58.1% | 58.3% | 52.4% | 52.6% | 1331 | — |
| 10 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 47.3% | 51.1% | 49.4% | 1393 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 2.8% | 14 | 67.9% | 59.6% | 51.0% | 52.0% | 1378 | — |
| 12 | Water Neos | 2 | 2.8% | 14 | 57.1% | 50.6% | 50.6% | 49.6% | 1368 | — |
| 13 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 58.4% | 49.5% | 49.5% | 1308 | — |
| 14 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 3 | 4.2% | 20 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 48.1% | 46.8% | 1317 | — |
| 15 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 49.5% | 47.5% | 46.3% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Slimes | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 50.0% | 60.3% | 47.3% | 50.5% | 1241 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Horse and Taxes | 2 | 2.8% | 13 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 47.3% | 48.3% | 1242 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Astra Cleric | 2 | 2.8% | 14 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 46.7% | 47.2% | 1322 | — |
| 19 | Water Chess | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 35.7% | 41.6% | 46.5% | 46.6% | 1345 | — |
| 20 | Fire Oblation | 5 | 6.9% | 29 | 46.6% | 48.9% | 46.5% | 48.9% | 1360 | — |
| 21 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.4% | 6 | 25.0% | 36.0% | 46.3% | 46.5% | 1076 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Tera Kongming | 3 | 4.2% | 19 | 47.4% | 52.2% | 45.3% | 47.8% | 1285 | — |
| 23 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.4% | 8 | 43.8% | 44.4% | 44.0% | 42.5% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 1.4% | 6 | 33.3% | 40.4% | 43.3% | 43.4% | 1310 | — |
| 25 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 4.2% | 21 | 33.3% | 48.9% | 42.1% | 45.8% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 21.4% | 32.8% | 41.7% | 45.3% | 1254 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.4% | 6 | 8.3% | 41.5% | 41.4% | 46.6% | 1002 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 1.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.1% | 41.2% | 46.1% | 1344 | — |
| 29 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.1% | 41.2% | 46.1% | 1344 | — |
| 30 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 2.8% | 13 | 15.4% | 33.6% | 40.9% | 44.7% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 40.4% | 40.8% | 44.5% | 1032 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 28.6% | 37.4% | 40.7% | 41.3% | 1304 | — |
| 33 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 2.8% | 13 | 30.8% | 38.1% | 40.0% | 39.9% | 1347 | — |