← Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-9-2
overall winrate
41.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.5%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333
· median 1341
· range 1058–1599
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1188
Q3 1381
1599
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +1.9 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.3% | -20.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
