← Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
Water GenbuTier 1
at Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
8-1-1
overall winrate
85.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.8%
avg ELO +6.2 per match
expected value
58.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1533
· median 1533
· range 1491–1575
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1188
Q3 1381
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
