← Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1211
· median 1211
· range 1211–1211
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1188
Q3 1381
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
