← Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
Wind Wakeup ComboTier 1
at Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
12-6-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1463
· median 1423
· range 1381–1584
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1188
Q3 1381
1599
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -1.9 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
